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Census may affect Fayette, Greene governments

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Declining population in Fayette and Greene counties could lead to both being downgraded in the county classification system, while Washington County appears to be heading in the opposite direction.

The decennial census this year will give the most accurate picture possible of the current population in the county, but both Fayette and Greene have seen the number of residents dropping over the past few decades, meaning they may lose funding.

The county ranking system goes from the smallest at eighth class to the largest and only first-class county of Philadelphia. Lisa Schaefer, the executive director of the County Commissioners Association of Pennsylvania, said moving up a class is usually a bigger change since it sometimes results in the expansion of row offices. But population loss also affects federal money that a county may receive, regardless of its class.

A curveball to this year’s census could be how the coronavirus pandemic affected enumerators from getting to households that did not respond to the surveys mailed to every address this spring.

“I actually am very concerned about the census and pandemic, and that’s echoed with every other commissioner I speak with,” Fayette County Commissioner Scott Dunn said. “Everybody’s worried about the same thing.”

Regardless of how COVID-19 has affected the census, Fayette has been losing population the past two decades, which concerns Dunn on how it could impact funding for programs, such as transit.

After the 2020 census, Fayette County will assuredly drop from its fourth-class status requiring a population above 145,000. While the 2010 census showed it below that threshold with 136,606 residents, it requires two consecutive census counts to drop it to fifth class.

“What it’s going to boil down to is a potential reduction in federal funding. The federal funding that will be hit the most is the public transit,” Dunn said. “That’s what we’re looking at more than anything to try to maintain that fourth class to keep the same level of funding that we already have.”

With the classification downgrade almost assured, Dunn said he hopes the state Legislature makes changes, allowing for the counties such as Fayette to remain at their current levels. A similar law in 2011 delayed the change following that census.

“If the entire state is moving – like a wave – if the entire wave is moving lower, we’re still in the same wave. We’re still in the same boat as everyone else,” he said. “There will be other counties that try to keep the same classification.”

Schaefer said she has spoken to Fayette County officials about the potential change, and her organization typically works with the state Legislature to see if they can “tweak” the class system, if needed.

Greene County does not face a similar predicament despite sustained population losses. Its population of 38,686 in 2010 was below the 45,000 minimum to be considered a sixth-class county. However, the county commissioners have the ability to request that they remain at the current classification, which a previous board authorized in 2011.

The county’s population is expected to continue to drop, but it was unclear whether the current board would vote again to keep the classification. Board Chairman Mike Belding said they would have to review what it would mean for the county and decide next year – when the official population numbers are released – to make a decision.

“We haven’t had that discussion,” Belding said. “We need the really numbers to decide if we want to be what we really are or do whatever paperwork or administrative work to make that decision.”

Commissioners Blair Zimmerman said any loss of funding by dropping to a seventh-class status will ultimately help them to determine what decision is made.

“We obviously don’t have the population for a sixth class,” Zimmerman said. “What will that do if we change our class? I have to really look at that closely. I’m not sure how that affects money coming in from the state. I think that’s going to be the bottom line.”

With a population of 207,820 in 2010 and a decade of growth that followed, Washington County could be catapulted into the third class if upcoming census results show it has a population of more than 210,000 people. Its row offices would not be affected because they’re the same for third and fourth classes, Schaefer said.

This is the final week for the 2020 census. In the spring and summer, Pennsylvania had a 69.6% self-response rate, which is higher than the national average of 67%.

Locally, Washington County had a self-response rate of 71.2%, while Fayette finished with 64.2% and Greene had only 62.8%, which ranked it in the lower-third of counties in Pennsylvania.

Census workers fanned out across the region over the summer to count households that did not respond to the questionnaire to determine the number of people living in the United States as of April 1. An interactive map at www.2020census.gov shows that workers have completed 99.9% of their work in the region and across the state.

A census spokeswoman did not respond to messages seeking comment on whether there were any outstanding issues with the enumeration process heading into its final week.

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